UPDATE: Wed. 8pm ET warning from National Hurricane Center (FLORENCE)

BY KAT SHEPHERD / SEPTEMBER 12, 2018 /

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FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, 8pm ET update, 9/12/18:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 54A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

…FLORENCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.5N 73.2W
ABOUT 335 MI…540 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 370 MI…595 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB…28.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 73.2 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is
expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight, and approach the coast of
North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on
Thursday and Friday, and move slowly near the coastline through
Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph
(185 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
strength are possible through Thursday morning. Although slow
weakening is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is
forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears
the U.S. coast late Thursday and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers…9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC…6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC…6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC…4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC…4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border…2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Coastal North Carolina…20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina…5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states…3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


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